Rogers Claims 7-Point Early Vote Lead as El-Sayed Faces Democratic Backlash

Republican Mike Rogers says his campaign is sitting pretty, claiming an internal model shows him up by nearly seven points in early votes for the Michigan Senate seat. The New York Post reported ^[1] that Rogers told reporters his team’s ground game, built through house-to-house canvassing, is giving them a significant edge in likely voter turnout. "We’re ahead on the early returns so that’s very good for us — almost by seven percent," Rogers said, noting that Democrats typically lead early voting while Republicans surge on Election Day.

However, the data tells a different story. According to NBC News, Democrats are currently leading the early count in Michigan 51% to Republicans’ 39%, with independents and third-party voters making up the remaining 10%. The details of Rogers’ internal model remain unclear, and there is no public data on how early voters have actually cast their ballots, only their party affiliation and history.

Meanwhile, the Democratic primary left scars that are still bleeding into the general election. Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic candidate, holds a 3.5-point lead over Rogers in the RealClearPolitics poll aggregate, but his primary victory over Rep. Haley Stevens was far narrower than predicted. El-Sayed won by just one point, despite leading by ten in earlier aggregates, according to the New York Post ^[1].

The tension erupted when Stevens, after a public falling out with El-Sayed, defected to endorse Rogers. This move came after Stevens’ fiancé, Jason Turkish, voiced concerns about El-Sayed’s stance on Jewish Michiganders. Stevens also demanded El-Sayed more forcefully condemn an antisemitic ad campaign against Rogers, which critics linked to the uncle of Twitch streamer Hasan Piker.

El-Sayed fired back, blaming his narrow primary win on a historic $70 million spent by outside groups, including AIPAC, on behalf of Stevens. "Our people-powered campaign defeated a historic $70M in outside spending," El-Sayed said, framing the general election as a battle to defend democracy against Trump’s hand-picked candidate. With CBS News noting ^[2] that control of the Senate may hinge on this Michigan showdown, the stakes could not be higher for both parties.